To seek long-term development of wind power

2010-05-08

According to Global Wind Energy Council forecasts in the coming years, global wind power installed capacity will grow rapidly. By 2013, the global cumulative wind power installed capacity will reach 332,100 megawatts, then add up to 56 300 MW installed capacity, this figure will be 2 times in 2008. Which, in Europe, North America and Asia is currently the fastest growing wind power installed capacity of the area.
China's wind resources, wind power industry development work progressed very quickly, the future of wind power industry, there is still much room for development. Expected future demand for wind turbine will continue to maintain rapid growth, 2010 ~ 2011, respectively, to reach 10,556 MW and 12,667 MW, respectively, year on year increase of 30% and 20%. 2009 ~ 2011, up 26.58 percent compound annual growth rate for three years.
Development of low-carbon energy choice
Wind power is one of the most competitive low-carbon energy sources, except in production of a small amount of carbon dioxide emissions, in wind turbine during the entire operation will not produce carbon dioxide emissions, a significant reduction effect.
According to the International Wind Energy Association estimates that the development, if appropriate, by 2020, wind power alone can achieve emission reduction emission reduction commitments of industrialized countries 65%.
After years of development of wind power technology, the current technology have gradually matured, the industry chain is also better, in some countries and regions with many traditional energy industries have to compete. It can be said of wind power has become the world's countries to develop renewable energy, reduce emissions, develop low-carbon economy of choice.
Compared to other new energy industry, wind power industrial chain longer. The development of wind power on the leading role in the chain significantly, and can increase employment, reduce emissions. Especially from the international financial crisis, the development of wind power has become the first choice for countries to stimulate the economy.
Data show that the global wind power installed capacity will continue to grow rapidly. Total installed capacity has grown from 4,800 MW in 1995 to grow to 120,789 megawatts in 2008, the new installed capacity reached 26.37 percent compound annual growth rate. From the historical data, Europe, Asia and America is the fastest growing wind power installed capacity of the area. As of the end of 2008, Europe, America and Asia respectively, wind power installed capacity of 65,946 MW, 27,542 MW and 24,368 MW, accounting for the proportion of the global wind power installed capacity was 54.59%, 22.80% and 20.17%.
Although the financial crisis, the global installed capacity added last year still reached 30,400 megawatts, up about 12.38%. Slowdown in Europe, but the U.S. and China and India growing rapidly, thus promoting the rapid global growth of new installed capacity.
After years of development, wind power industry to maturity. The cost is close to conventional energy, and resources are very rich, is the most economical under current technology, clean energy. For these reasons, wind power as countries develop low-carbon economy, and alternative energy a priority investment area. Although in some areas, such as the development level of some European countries due to relatively high, growth has slowed, but the development of wind power is still present in the global trend that blossomed.
Meanwhile, there are many resources in good condition the countries and regions, such as Canada, Australia and so maximize our wind, wind power development potential immeasurable.
New energy into the investment focus
In recent years, thanks to the power supply tension eased, domestic equipment manufacturing capacity to increase, for the optimization of the structure of China's power installed capacity to provide good opportunities and conditions.
For climate change, carbon dioxide emissions, the future of energy security and sustainable development considerations, the proportion of China's coal account for the absolute need to change the situation. As of the end of 2009, China's total installed capacity of thermal power installed capacity accounted for 75% of all electricity generation accounted for 81%. The current installed capacity of thermal power is still the main force, the total installed capacity of 75%.
Beginning in 2007, the Government intends to control the construction of new thermal power projects, to encourage wind power, hydropower and other new energy sources or renewable energy industry development, China's power installed capacity of structure has been optimized: wind power, hydropower and other clean renewable energy installed capacity proportion increased proportion of thermal power installed capacity has declined.
The enormous energy Jiegoutiaozheng pressure, the next structural adjustment policies in power even greater intensity: Wind electricity will continue to improve the support policy, the difficult problem of wind power online in the near You Wang Qiang Lai resolved, Jie Shi Wan Quan eliminate the Wind Energy Industry obstacles. At the same time, nuclear power will enter a period of great development, the entire installed capacity of nuclear power will continue to grow in proportion; PV stimulation in policy development also will begin to enter the fast lane. In the thermal power, the will to speed up the elimination inefficient small unit upgrades, new units will be on the large capacity and high parameters of unit-based, IGCC technology and equipment into the future of thermal power equipment development.
The future, wind power and other new energy industry will be the fastest growing part of the installed capacity will also be the focus of the power investment. 2015, all new energy such as wind power, nuclear power, photovoltaic power generation will increase significantly: wind power will be 17.06 million kilowatts in 2009 increased to 101.98 million kilowatts by 2015; nuclear power will be 9.08 million kilowatts in 2009 increased to 38.08 million kilowatts in 2015; and net installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation from the current growth of about 245,000 kilowatts to 10.845 million kilowatts.
In 2010 and "12 5" period, China's annual installed capacity of new power change is not obvious, but structural changes due to new installed --- unit installed capacity of greater investment in new energy generation installed capacity to increase the ratio to the whole power investment will continue to grow steadily, the annual investment will increase from 371.1 billion yuan to 497.3 billion yuan in 2015.
Can be expected, wind power and other new energy power generation will be the biggest beneficiaries of investment growth.
Wind power is still fame
In recent years, China's wind turbine machine of supply and demand reversed profit rate to accelerate to average close.
China's wind resources from the state and has developed the extent that wind power industry still has much room for development. It is predicted that over the next two to three years, the demand for wind turbines will continue to maintain rapid growth. Wind power demand growing rapidly, faster productivity growth.
Based on industry leading manufacturer of production statistics: domestic wind turbine capacity in 2009, has significant surplus: in 2009 and 2010, domestic wind turbine requirements were 812 and 10.56 million kilowatts, while the country only to local wind turbine manufacturing business capacity will reach 1200 and 17.25 million kilowatts. Currently, wind power capacity in excess of the situation, many companies have to find a way out of international markets, and this could lead to industry-wide consolidation.
At the same time, wind power machine as a reversal of supply and demand, wind power prices is inevitable. Recently, at the national wind power concession bidding, from the golden wind technology companies released data shows that wind turbine prices have shown a significant decline. Rapid decline in the price of wind power will lead to machine speed to the average level close to the margins.
Before 2008, due to wind power machine in short supply, the shortage of key parts, the whole prices have been strong, and also a slight upgrade. After reaching a certain scale, the whole manufacturing profitable; domestic wind power industry, auxiliary components in the initial stages of failure, some parts such as generators, main bearings, gear boxes, electronic control, and even leaves the majority of the need to import the upstream parts manufacturing companies also enjoy huge profits; but the wind farm investment due to wind turbine high prices, government subsidies are limited, only at the edge of break-even.
Since 2009, due to increased machine availability, supporting gradually improved domestic industry, machine and part components such as generators, gear boxes and blades and other prices have returned to a reasonable level, 这些 average of product profitability trends; wind farm operating as machine prices, financing costs and other factors, profit margins are rising. Long Yuan Electric Power recently successfully listed on Hong Kong market in China shows that capital markets are increasingly optimistic about wind farms operating in the field.
Although the wind power industry, increasing competition, but in 2010 the world's rapidly growing wind power industry will continue to give wind power industry in all aspects of manufacturing opportunities. Materials, parts, machine manufacturing and wind farm operators and related companies will benefit.
Concern is the domestic market will be industry leaders focused. Although the machine market, overcapacity, but exactly the opportunity to integrate the industry leading enterprises. Role in policies to promote and market, the domestic market will gradually Goldwind Dongfang Electric and other leading enterprises concentrated.
Related links: wind power this year, exports will send power machine
In an increasingly competitive domestic market situation, since 2009, many wind power machine manufacturers began to enter the international market. This year can be said is the first year the export of wind turbines.
Among them, the Golden Wind wind turbine technology exported to the U.S., day prestige motor group signed an agreement exported to Australia, many Vietnamese enterprises to obtain orders for wind turbine. Expected from 2010 onwards, part of the wind machine enterprises export business will gain a good profit.
Experts believe that the wind power industry, domestic and international market situation is getting better and export will be machine made in 2010, power, wind power can be effectively promoted the sustained and healthy development industry. But its resistance and risk factors can not be ignored.
The first new energy policy support than expected. China's development of new energy industries, but the short term can not radically change to our current installed capacity of thermal power-based power structure. Therefore, the new energy policy support and the introduction of time may be lower than expected. Second, fluctuations in raw material prices. Copper, aluminum, silicon and other raw material prices, historically, long-term volatility, this situation will increase the difficulty of production organization, operational risk has increased.